martedì 20 settembre 2016

III - Is our hobby dying?

Hi readers!
 Some days ago I was thinking about our beloved hobby: all of us have read opinions about AoS, GW financial items and stuff. I decided to share something I've discoverded with the poor open data you can find on the internet given by daddy Google. If you search Google trends, you can find a search engine that can help you to know wich words are searched in the world: I decided to use this thing to try to understand if our hobby is searched: I clearly know that this is not a perfect barometer of our hobby - I'm stats, not funnynumberontheweb lol- but I suppose that could be interesting analyze the few data we can easily reach.

A pair of details:
the country you are going to see are the most frequent in some search: sometimes you can see a state with 0, it means that in a "brother" graph it was present a data>0 (so this is why you see it "red" and not blank);
if you vary the time, the line and trend are logically increasing or decreasing for the same variable: it is the nature of those data, you should be smart to read them (not so simple);
sometimes in the graph (they are interactive, pass the mouse on them) you can find some non english word, but these words are easy to translate;
google datas are "relativized", the highest number is =100, and so on the other: this is not my favourite form of data, but it is what we have! N.b. with a mobile device you could not see the interactive graph

First, lets analyze the word "Warhammer" as common term.
As we can see, the term has a decline in searching, with a great peak on 09/2008. Unfortunately that time I was not in the hobby, so if you can help me to know why that happen, I'll be glad.

The tendencies is declining,(I've add the R square, maybe after could be useful: it explain in a simple descriptive regression how much a model fit, but it is more useful comparing more models). Lets see where the term is searched the most, with green the max, red the less. Wait to see the whole map. Looking at my blog statistics, I'm quite surprised, but I've a recent blog and I perfectly know that it is not a representative sample. I want to tell that if you go to google trends you can see more animations.

Now lets see 40k,Fantasy,AoS and GW.

And the geography datas:

AoS omitted, all zeros.

As everybody knows the blockbuster is 40K -in search, according to our datas-, followed by Fantasy, and GW in general. AoS is not appeared. We see also the negative tendencies and a better R square for everybody, and the equations underline the negative trend (if you need clarifications, comment, I prefere not "put weight" on this post with technical features -that I love-). Probably for AoS we must analyze a shorter period, let's see the 2015, when this game appeared.

Let's Find AoS, I.E., let's analyze 2015.
We must use the 2015 to find AoS. Here the results.

As you can see it is the lowest of the product and after the big hipe of the release, it is slowly growing. It can be strange but it is logic that a trend in a period is decreasing, and in another one is growing (and vice versa).
Here the geography the 2015 data.



Ok stats, what do you mean with those things? Is our hobby dying? 
Remember, we are talking on search on web, not precise data: if you have better data, let's share them!
We can see that in a long period, our hobby is slowly declining; probably this is why GW is trying to put new blood with the AoS revolution, and that game it is slowly increasing. It is quite fun that also Fantasy in the last year is slowly growing.
We must remember that a search in Google could be "Fantasy is Good" or "Fantasy is Bad", we do not know how Google count them and other interesting thing.

Clearly I do not want say something very precise (as you can see, I tried to not put my opinion or a lot of comments but only objective datas as possible, because I prefere that you can find your ideas), because I do not have the numbers, but I hope that you can find some hint in thought, search better info in Google trends (for example USA readers can see datas for each State, or other country members can see for each region), and probably start a discussion that is not the classic flame war about GW haters vs GW lovers (like me).

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